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10 Aug 2026

Fertilizer Supply Risks Put MSGBC Basin’s Industrialization Plans in Focus

Fertilizer Supply Risks Put MSGBC Basin’s Industrialization Plans in Focus

Global fertilizer market disruptions are creating renewed urgency around the MSGBC basin’s ambitions to convert natural resources into higher-value industrial products. With approximately 30% of global fertilizer supply traditionally transiting the Strait of Hormuz, recent disruptions have highlighted vulnerabilities in international supply chains, while rising urea prices are placing additional pressure on import-dependent markets.

Sub-Saharan Africa remains particularly exposed, importing approximately 90% of its mineral fertilizer needs. For gas-producing countries across the MSGBC region, these challenges reinforce the opportunity to use newly available energy resources to develop domestic fertilizer industries, strengthen agricultural resilience and capture greater economic value from natural resources.

This opportunity will be explored at MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power 2026, including through discussions on “Gas as the Engine of Regional Transformation,” which will examine how natural gas can support industrialization through fertilizer production, petrochemicals, gas-to-power and regional energy development.

Natural gas accounts for approximately 80–90% of ammonia production costs, making gas-rich markets attractive locations for fertilizer manufacturing. As countries across the MSGBC basin move toward commercializing offshore gas resources, the region is increasingly positioned to leverage these supplies for downstream industrial development.

Senegal is among the countries advancing the most ambitious plans. Through Petrosen, the country is developing a proposed gas-fed urea fertilizer project at Ndayane, which is currently at the feasibility stage and could produce up to 1.2 million tons of fertilizer annually. The project would link domestic gas production with industrial manufacturing, targeting both regional markets, including Mali, and international buyers. As host country of MSGBC 2026, Senegal will use the event as a platform to advance discussions around investment, partnerships and project development.

Senegal’s opportunity is strengthened by the combination of its natural gas resources and established phosphate industry. Through Industries Chimiques du Sénégal (ICS), one of the country’s largest industrial companies, Senegal already has significant phosphate production capacity – a key input for NPK fertilizers. The combination of domestic gas for nitrogen-based fertilizer and phosphate resources creates the foundation for a more integrated fertilizer value chain.

Mauritania is pursuing a complementary pathway through green ammonia development. The country’s green hydrogen ambitions, including CWP Global’s 30 GW Aman Project, aim to produce up to 10 million tons of green ammonia annually for export markets. While primarily positioned as an energy transition initiative, green ammonia also provides a potential pathway for future fertilizer production by creating new sources of ammonia feedstock without relying solely on conventional natural gas.

Both Senegal’s gas-to-fertilizer strategy and Mauritania’s green ammonia ambitions will feature in National Spotlight sessions at MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power 2026, highlighting the different approaches emerging across the region to strengthen industrial capacity.

 

As global fertilizer markets remain under pressure and African countries seek greater supply security, the MSGBC basin’s combination of gas resources, phosphate reserves and industrial development plans creates a significant opportunity to build new regional value chains. Taking place in Dakar from 1–3 December 2026, MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power will convene governments, investors, industrial developers and energy leaders to advance the partnerships needed to transform these opportunities into operational projects.

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